 量化政策與貿易平衡！, 經濟與佛法！
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 發表於: Thu.04/03, 2014 08:04 am
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26861903IMF fears 'years of sub-par growth' The global economy is "too weak for comfort", Christine Lagarde said The global economy could be heading for years of "sub-par growth", according to the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Christine Lagarde warned that without "brave action" the world could fall into a "low growth trap". She said the global economy would grow by more than 3% this year and next, but that market volatility and tensions in Ukraine posed risks. Ms Lagarde also urged more action to tackle low inflation in the eurozone. She called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to pursue "more monetary easing, including through unconventional measures". Eurozone warning "There is the emerging risk of what I call 'low-flation', particularly in the euro area," she added. "A potentially prolonged period of low inflation can suppress demand and output, and suppress growth and jobs." Her advice to the ECB, in a speech on Wednesday, came the day before a meeting of the central bank's policymakers. Economists do not expect them to announce any measures to reverse a drop in the region's rate of inflation, which fell to 0.5% in March, its lowest since 2009. It was also the 6th month in what ECB President Mario Draghi has called "the danger zone" below 1%. 'Low growth trap' The IMF's managing director said that global economic signs were positive overall, but that "without sufficient policy ambition, the world could fall into a medium-term low-growth trap". She called for governments to reform labour markets to encourage job creation, and for more public investment such as transport and communications networks in rich and emerging countries. In a speech seen as a precursor to the IMF's spring meetings in Washington next week, Ms Lagarde specifically referred to the US Federal Reserve's gradual winding down of monetary stimulus. The US central bank is slowly reducing the rate at which it buys bonds, which has been pumping money into the country's economy. But it has had a damaging impact on emerging markets, as investors withdrew money back to the US in the hope of achieving higher interest rates. Ms Lagarde said there needed to be greater cooperation among policymakers to limit the impact of the Fed's tapering, and warned the problem could also "spill back" to the US. She also warned the situation in Ukraine could have "broader spillover implications" if not well managed. The IMF last week announced financial support of $14-18bn (£8.5-£11bn) for Kiev in exchange for tough economic reforms. BBC c 2014
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發表於: Fri.04/04, 2014 07:55 am
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Draghi Says Officials Debate QE to Fight Deflation Risk
Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank is ready to move deeper into uncharted territory in the fight against deflation, with policy makers debating what form of quantitative easing they might need to use.
“There was a discussion about QE, it wasn’t neglected,” the ECB president said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.25 percent. “There are obviously different preferences about which QE would be more effective. We will continue working on that in the coming weeks.”
QE, or large-scale purchases of assets intended to bolster prices and economic growth, would be the ECB’s most ambitious measure yet as it grapples with inflation at just a quarter of the central bank’s goal. At the same time, the Governing Council faces substantial hurdles to develop a policy suitable for the 18-nation currency bloc.
“It was significant that the council discussed QE at length,” said Sarah Hewin, head of research at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “There’s been an evolution regarding QE, from a situation where there was clear, strong ideological opposition to it, to a situation now where there is support in the right circumstances. I take them at face value.”
Tacit Backing
Policy makers kept the benchmark rate unchanged for a fifth month today and the deposit rate was left at zero. Italian and Spanish debt advanced as Draghi spoke. The euro fell to $1.3711 at 6:18 p.m. Frankfurt time from around $1.376 at the start of the press conference as the ECB president signaled concern about the currency’s strength.
While QE is already used by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, it has proved a controversial policy topic in the euro area, where the ECB is banned by European Union law from financing governments.
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, who has led the resistance to bond purchases in the past, gave tacit backing to asset purchases last week and Draghi said the Governing Council was able to have a “very rich” discussion today. He said policy makers were unanimous in their commitment to use unconventional policy.
Even so, Draghi signaled that policy makers don’t have a clear idea of what a quantitative easing program for the euro area might look like. He noted that the predominantly bank-financed economy wouldn’t react to purchases of government debt in the same way as in the U.S., where companies raise more funding in the financial markets.
‘Not There Yet’
“It’s not easy to design a program of QE on private debt that is large in size and doesn’t have risks for financial stability,” he said. Policy makers are “thinking hard,”about how to make QE work, he said.
That suggests officials’ willingness to introduce an asset-purchase program probably doesn’t translate into imminent action.
“The ECB is clearly not there yet when it comes to QE,” said Ken Wattret, chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Still, the signals from today’s press conference are very clear: the issue has become much more prominent in ECB thinking and the sensitivity to downside risks to price stability has palpably increased.”
Inflation in the euro area slid to 0.5 percent in March, the slowest pace since November 2009. Draghi said that while the number was a “genuine surprise,” it was distorted by the timing of the Easter holiday. The ECB projects that the economy will continue to revive and inflation will eventually return to its price-stability goal of just under 2 percent.
‘Biggest Fear’
Economic confidence in the region is the strongest since July 2011, and lending to companies and households rose month-on-month in February for the first time since July 2012.
“The Governing Council sees both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments as limited and broadly balanced over the medium term,” Draghi said.
The comments on QE were the ECB’s signal that it’s ready to act if that scenario doesn’t play out. Draghi today underscored the scale of the threat facing the euro region’s economy and said that the outlook could still deteriorate.
One of the biggest dangers facing Europe is “very high” unemployment, he said. The euro-area jobless rate was 11.9 percent in February, showing only a gradual improvement from the record 12.1 percent reached last year.
“My biggest fear is actually to some extent a reality and that is the protracted stagnation, longer than we have in our baseline scenario,” Draghi said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Black in Athens at jblack25@bloomberg.net; Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net Paul Gordon
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發表於: Fri.04/04, 2014 04:01 pm
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所屬群組: 站長
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Businessweek
Taiwan's Protests Point to a Deeper Crisis
By Bruce Einhorn April 03, 2014
Since his election in 2008, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has presided over uneven growth and has had to deal with some of the lowest popularity polls in Taiwan’s political history. Ma’s answer to the island’s economic woes is to draw closer to its largest trading partner, China. It’s a risky strategy. China has not given up its goal to regain what it considers a lost province, by force if necessary.
Ma now has to defuse tensions after students occupied the legislature in Taipei to protest his latest proposal, a deal with Beijing to open Taiwan’s services industries to Chinese competition and investment. The Sunflower Movement is striking a nerve. A huge crowd (estimated by police at more than 100,000 and by organizers at over 300,000) marched on the president’s office on March 30. Ma says he won’t back down on the agreement to open banking, hospitals, e-commerce, and other businesses to Chinese investment and competition. He calls the proposal a crucial step in revitalizing the economy.
Providing fuel for the protests is the worry that Taiwan and its electronics exporters are adrift as the island searches for a place in a world dominated by Apple (AAPL) and Samsung Electronics (005930:KS). Taiwanese tech companies have long been important players in the global electronics industry, designing and producing PCs for companies such as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell. With smartphones and tablets replacing laptops and desktops, demand for Taiwanese computers is falling, and manufacturers are struggling. Although economic growth has averaged 4 percent over the past decade, last year it was just 2.1 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC). Even Taiwanese companies that thrive in the new order, such as Apple outsourcer Foxconn Technology (2354:TT), employ most of their workers in China and other countries, leaving relatively little for the folks back home. Average wages in Taiwan are at the same level as a decade and a half ago.
South Korea is pursuing its own trade pact with China. “Korea is aggressively negotiating and not waiting,” says Marcella Chow, Taiwan economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If Ma’s deal with China remains stuck in the legislature, “it sends signals to other countries that Taiwan is not willing to open its market.” She adds that if South Korea can ink liberalization deals with China, which Taiwan can’t match, multinationals might be more likely to invest in South Korea than Taiwan.
Ma’s critics fear that a pact with China will make Taiwan even more vulnerable to pressure from the mainland to unify on terms that would jeopardize the island’s democracy. With the ruling Kuomintang holding a majority in the legislature, the president might still be able to force through the services pact. Yet the current deal is “not that important,” says Chow. “The most important is the trade-in-goods agreement afterwards.” This is a far more ambitious pact that would reduce tariffs and enable Taiwanese exporters to sell made-in-Taiwan products in the mainland more easily. It would also end protection for Taiwanese farmers by opening the island to food imports from the mainland. Even before the demonstrations, the trade-in-goods agreement was a sensitive subject for both opponents and supporters of closer ties with China. With the Sunflower Movement mobilized, Ma’s task is even more daunting.
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發表於: Mon.04/07, 2014 10:58 am
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目前世界各國的外滙存底;
排名 國家 外匯存底(百萬美元) 資料時間
1 中國 3,726,004 2013/09
2 日本 1,288,206 2014/02
3 沙烏地阿拉伯 725,685 2014/02
4 瑞士 532,445 2014/01
5 俄羅斯 493,326 2014/02
6 台灣 423,059 2014/02
7 巴西 362,691 2014/02
8 韓國 348,394 2014/01
9 香港 315,919 2014/02
10 印度 303,670 2014/01
11 新加坡 273,996 2014/02
12 德國 210,554 2014/02
13 阿爾及利亞 192,500 2013/12
14 墨西哥 183,763 2014/02
15 泰國 168,081 2014/02
16 法國 152,675 2014/01
17 義大利 149,685 2014/01
18 美國 145,537 2014/02
19 英國 134,966 2014/01
20 馬來西亞 133,134 2014/01
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